Research Roundup: Game of Thrones

October 31, 2024

3:20 PM PT

Olympia, WA

Here is another edition of the research roundup for everyone. The research roundup is a compilation of some of the most interesting (free) content I consume.

The election is just a few days away, and we discussed it a bit in our recent webinar, but for a more broadly encompassing analysis, I found Michael Cembalest’s recent Eye on the Market to be the most insightful publication on the election that I have come across.

You can read it here: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/mind-the-gap-amv.pdf

Notable chart that neither candidate is addressing:

Entitlements + interest payments are set to surpass government revenues by the early 2030’s!

Michael Cembalest has been putting out other good publications recently as well. He recently published about the China stimulus that has had China stocks doing well.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/thucydides-cap-on-the-china-equity-trade-amv.pdf

The stimulus could be good for China’s economy, but I think the geopolitical risks are not worth the reward. This chart he included encapsulates that view pretty well:

I recently attended an investor event in NYC. There were several presentations and speakers there, but this slide in Dr. David Asher’s presentation stood out to me.

Geopolitical experts are always attuned to risk, and there are plenty of risks out there now. This all just reinforces the need for a properly diversified investment portfolio.

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